VCU Hoops

Belmont and VCU Are Both Playing With Fire...

The Belmont Bruins invade our friendly confines Saturday night, and don't let "Belmont?" fool you. These guys are good. Very good. Five NCAA touraments in seven years good. Remember that New York Times article that rated VCU the 18th best program over the past five years? Belmont was 11th.

Don't misconstrue, I'm not afraid--just making sure everyone understands the toughness of this game and the quality of win this will be.

Rick Byrd is in his 27th year as coach--he knows what he's doing, ranking seventh among active coaches with 642 wins--and Belmont has a potent lineup that can shoot it up (40% from three) and guard your fanny (28.0% steal rate in ninth nationally). The Bruins beat Stanford and lost to Northeastern (in Alaska).

Grandmaster Flash and the Furious Five Things I'm Watching

1. Offensive Rebounds: This year VCU is grabbing 38.6% of its misses, 47th nationally. Last season was just 33.4% and the  season before 30.7%. We always hem and haw about steals producing extra possessions. Well, so do offensive rebounds, which are sometimes better--many o-rebs result in stickbacks, fouls, or have the defense out of position so VCU gets a wide open look. All three results are especially important in this Belmont game.

2. Juvonte Reddic Early: The only Bruins player that stands a chance guarding Reddic is Trevor Noack. It wouldn't surprise me to see VCU again isolate Reddic and have him go to work, either drawing fouls of hitting that baby jump hook. Reddic has become incredibly good at using his fanny to establish solid block position--it's the hidden secret to getting that baby jump hook freed--that opponents are in a tough spot of choosing to foul or giving up that point blank look. If Belmont chooses a double-team, Reddic is going to have to be a good passer and find the open man in offensive rotations.

3. You. Shaka Smart has said that he's never been anywhere where the fans have such an intimate relationship with the players. And the kids certainly feed off of the crowd's energy. Belmont has the kind of team that can easily make you feel bad about yourself--the more edge that builds upon itself, the better.

4. Lull Response. VCU finally made it out of the locker room for the second half on time against Stetson. The Rams have been dreadful in that first segment of the second half but used a 14-5 burst to push the lead to 28 points. However the Rams immediately gave back 13 of those points before re-establishing itself. Belmont has the kind of shooting team that can produce opposition runs. A lull cannot become a funk. VCUs big shot capability may be on notice.

5. Side Door Fire. Long threes, steal-and-dunk, deflections out of bounds...all produce the fist-bumping, chest-thumping fire we like to see from this team. I'm going to pay keen attention to how the Rams run to the huddle on timeouts. Huddle during dead balls. Rush to each other's aid. Talk to each other on the floor during play. All of these areas connote an authentic, unforced fire, which would spell doom for Belmont.

We Don't Work For Free

The go factor for the Bruins is lefty point guard Kerron Johnson (13.8ppg, 5.2apg). The 6-3 senior carries the craftiness of a veteran and has the quicks to match. Johnson is a beast when he explores the lane area--he's strong to the rim but racks up assists on dump-downs to a post. The secret is not a secret--Darius Theus is going to have to keep him out of the lane.

Pay attention to Johnson when VCU has the ball. He has active hands, and here's a tie for you: last year Briante Weber led the nation in steal percentage. Two seasons ago that honor belonged to Johnson.

Ian Clark (16.8ppg), without mincing words, is a ridiculous shooter. We love our Troy Daniels flick-and-swish, to the tune of 20-51 this year. Clark is 25-46 (54.3%) from three in one fewer game. Clark hit nine threes (in 11 tries) in a Belmont loss to Northeastern. Another easy scout: close out on him, and be physical, making Clark uncomfortable.

The third starter is 6-7, 240-pont Trevor Noack (12.7ppg, 5.3rpg). Noack is a big strong tough guy in the post, but slow. VCU should be able to run him ragged in transition. Blake Jenkins (11.2ppg, 4.8rpg) is the opposite. Jenkins goes 6-7 but just 210 pounds and is a long, active post who run the floor well. The Rams need to push Jenkins off his spots and account for him in the open floor or he can catch fire. Jenkins popped 22 points on Oral Roberts in Belmont's last game.

JJ Mann (9.3ppg) is the fifth starter and versatile. Mann has the handle and can shoot open threes (12-26 this year) but can also play down to the four spot. Mann is not known for his defense, so take note of Treveon Graham in the early game sequences.

It's a short bench for Rick Byrd, which always favors the havocy Rams. Reece Chamberlain gets about 16 minutes from the backup point guard spot. Chamberlain plays beyond his sophomore maturity but can be had in the press. Brandon Baker is the first big off the pine and knows his role--play off of others. Finally, Craig Bradshaw isn't much on the defensive end but needs to be located--his main skill is the abiltiy to shoot (6-11 threes on the year).

The Message

Shaka Smart frequently talks about playing with an edge. That's going to be paramount tomorrow night. Belmont has the kind of team--great shooters, tough defenders--that can make it a long night if VCU doesn't play with a fire.

Belmont is forcing more turnovers than VCU (28.0% turnover rate is ninth). What's more the Bruins take care of the basketball--they only allows steals on 7.2% of possessions (28th nationally). However Belmont is not a good rebounding team, and only goes eight deep.

That sets up the keys to victory: that edge has to make havoc look like there's six VCU players on the floor, but six disciplined players as the Rams have to be alert and find the shooters. It's a matter of defensive discomfort (which is helped by raucous fans).

However VCU must also pound the ball to Juvonte Reddic in the post and let Reddic and Treveon Graham work a two-man game. Why? Well, that's the best offensive set and those are the two best players, but the combination of Reddic thundering away on the blocks and the Freight Train driving the lane will produce fouls. Fouls mean foul trouble. And that's big trouble with a short bench and havoc.

Ken Pomeroy gives VCU a 72-65 win, with a 75% chance of winning. From your computer to the Basketball God's ears, Ken...

VCU 92, Stetson 56...Or, Home Again. Same Bat Time, Same Bat Channel...

It was very nice to be back in the friendly confines with the 21st straight sellout.

Also, Shaka Smart broke the world's record for quietest technical foul earned in a college basketball game. It was hilariously subdued. Someone call Guinness.

'Nuf Ced.

The Overview

This game was never in doubt as the Rams jumped out quickly, 8-2, forcing turnovers on four straight Stetson possessions. The lead creeped to 20-10, then 41-22 at the half. After Stetson opened the second half with a basket, VCU went on a 14-3 spree to lead by 28 points. Save a grotesque 13-0 lull, the Rams coasted home.

VCU established Juvonte Reddic on the block early--Stetson tried four different defenses to contain him--and ramped up the defense to create separation. Not much of a story here.

(Side note: Adam Pegg played behind Reddic; then fronted Reddic: then Stetson brought a guard low to double team Reddic; finally they went to a zone. Nothing could contain the big man last night.)

The Skinny

This is exactly how you wanted to see this team respond to its Atlantis trip. They played the same mental game inside the locker room as every fan played since Saturday night--disappointed and frustrated by a 1-2 record and missed opportunities, but encouraged by the competitiveness and progress agaisnt top flight competition.

It would've been easy to come out flat against an overmatched Stetson team, but VCU was sharp from the beginning. We also saw how the havoc defense is intertwined with the shooting. The Rams suffered again from long range, hitting just five of 22 threes.

However the team forced 21 turnovers, which led to easy transition baskets. Take that, plus Reddic's inside domination, and you get a 31-47 night on two-point shots (66%). Knocking down threes obviously makes VCU a dominant offensive team, but the defense provides the offense options to score.

Where Things Changed

On VCUs fourth possession, Darius Theus bounced a pass into Reddic on the right block, who had Pegg on his hip. The other four VCU players moved as far left on the court as possible, isolating Reddic and Pegg. Juvonte used his backside, jabbed left, and hit his third baby jump hook.

After that, it was obvious the night would belong to VCU. It was a matter of time.

What It Means

I'm obviously a Sunshine and Stellas for Everyone guy with this team, but to me, while it's nice to have fun and it's comforting to see the team respond in the manner in which it responded, this was Stetson. I don't mean that disrespectfully, but VCU at home should beat a middle-tier Atlantic Sun team.

Juvonte Reddic should dominate the post. Jarred Guest should play with a confidence that allows a double-double. So what does it mean? A check box on the to do list, but don't start feeling good about yourselves.

Statistic That Jumps Out At Me

32. That's Rob Brandenberg's minutes, which climbed for the fourth straight game. I commented on the air that Brandenberg had a different aura about him--he looked angry and carried a scowl on his face. He played with a similar distemper and indignation.

Brandenberg's stat line reflects the acrimony: 7-13 shooting (2-6 from threes), 17 points and four steals.

The Curmudgeon's View

It's tough to be all curmudgeony this morning. That's exactly how this team needed to play. However the three-point shooting performance cannot be written off. It has become a three-game skid that is a combined 17-66 (25.8%) from beyond the arc. Troy Daniels seems a little sluggish the past two games in particular, and Buzz can lift everyone's bombardier nature.

VCU is going to need those shots this weekend--Belmont is a very physical, highly-disciplined defensive team. That is a challenge.

Stars of the Game

***Juvonte Reddic: The big fella was in call-your-stat-line mode last night. However two other things stood out to me--Reddic was frequently the first big man to get to loose balls (energy plays), and he is beginning to perfect that baby jump hook through positioning (credit Will Wade). What's more, Adam Pegg came into the game averaging 18.3ppg and 6.0rpg, but fouled out last night with one point and three rebounds.

**Jarred Guest: Shaka Smart is (rightfully) going to go all basketball coach on us and play down Guest's numbers. However this team very much needs production out of the 4/5 spot that complements Reddic. A 17/10 night is exactly that, and keep in mind Guest was deflecting passes at the front of the press as well.

*Briante Weber: Four assists, zero turnovers, five rebounds (three offensive), and 3-3 from the foul line. Plus, only one bad reach-in foul. At the beginning of the season Shaka Smart told me Weber would only be a role player until he figured out he has to do more on the court than run around and make steals. Weber is starting to figure that out.

Numbers, Nuance, and Norelco...

We're six games into the season--three up, three down--and it's probably a good time to look at some early season statistical trends worth watching. The level of competition has been ideal for this view--a couple gimme games and four toughies.

Shooting is a point of discussion, for sure, so we will start there. I'm not convinced the issue is what everyone believes it to be.

Every major VCU guard is shooting a better percentage from three after six games this year than last year: Treveon Graham (45% from 31%), Darius Theus (44% from 24%), Briante Weber (50% from 25%), Rob Brandenberg (32% from 29%), and Troy Daniels (41% from 38%).

As a team the Rams are shooting 37.8% on top of last year's 33.4% and making one more three per game than last year (8.5 from 7.4).

Thusfar, I'd say we're a better shooting team than last year. If not better, then certainly improved (there is a difference). The frustration we all felt at the rim-clangs this weekend has less to do with being a poor shooting team and more to do with margin for error.

The margin for error playing the top teams in the country is razor thin. VCU could get away with a poor shooting night or havoc lite night in years past. This new neighborhood is more demanding, more cruel, and less forgiving. You'd better make plays or you will lose. It's that simple.

Last year?

We were 5-19 from three at Akron and won. We were 5-23 from three at UNCW and won. We were 6-23 from three at Alabama and lost. See how that works? Similarly, the only game last year in which we forced fewer than 10 turnovers was at Georgia State, a win. Drexel only committed 11 turnovers in the face of January havoc and beat VCU.

Let's look at Rob Brandenberg's weekend. Super knocked down half his three-point shots, showing me he is a capable, if not "good," shooter. However he hit 5-5 against Memphis and missed all five against Duke.

How different is the Duke game if Brandenberg knocks down JUST ONE of those three pointers? Let's say it was the one with about eight minutes to go. The Rams been down by double digits but got a flush from Juvonte Reddic to pull the game to 54-50. Briante Weber then stole the ball from Seth Curry and he fired a pass to Brandenberg, who had a good look. The three rimmed out and you know what happened from there.

How tight does Duke get--and how excited do the Rams get--if that three swishes? That's game-changing momentum. The point: not bad shooters, but thin margin for error.

VCU is not a bad shooting team. "Shooting" is not a problem. The difference is that the lulls against lesser competition are escapable. Great teams make you pay, and we paid. Two more defensive possessions that don't break down and two shots go in that did not, and either Duke or Missouri may have turned out differently.

That's also why I'm encouraged. We didn't shoot well, weren't forcing turnovers, and had late game breakdowns on defense, and were still close in two top 15 games. A smart man commented to me after the Missouri game that if this had been an NCAA tournament game, we'd have all been angry--that was no way to end a season.

He was right, which is why it's important to play these games in November. VCU has a learning curve to the nuance of winning on this bigger stage. Five months from now, that is a different game.

***

As a team, VCU is shooting 30-77 (39.0%) from three in the first half of games this year, and 21-58 (36.2%) in the second half. The percentage difference is realistic, but 19 fewer threes taken in second halves is strange.

What's more, VCU opponents are hitting just 8-44 (18%) from deep in the first half, and 18-47 (38%) from three in the second half.

Troy Daniels is individually emblematic of this collective oddity. Daniels has hit 13-25 (52.0%) from three in the first half but 4-17 (23.5%) in the second half.

Five of Justin Tuoyo's six rebounds this year have been offensive rebounds.

VCU is 4-1-1 in terms of rebounding advantage. Missouri outrebounded the Rams, and Wichita State tied. VCU is grabbing 37.9% of its misses, 58th nationally. On the other side, VCU grabs 68.6% of available defensive rebounds--154th in the nation.

VCUs turnover differential in three wins is a plus 22 (68 forced/46 committed). In three losses, it's negative two (33/35).

Oddly, the opposition shoots better in games in which VCU wins. Opponents are 65-145 (44.8%) from the field when VCU wins the game, and they are 68-162 (42.0%) from the field when they beat VCU. (Look back at that turnover differential number...)

When Briante Weber plays well, so does the team. Weber averages 10.7ppg and has 12 steals in wins, and 2.0ppg and just six steals in losses.

Quick trivia question: Smart's substitutions in the Missouri game created how many different lineup changes? (Answer below...)

If Missouri is any indication, Shaka Smart is beginning to level his rotation and minutes distribution. When I blend actual and supposed ideal, the minutes distribution is working its way to:

80 minutes at the 4/5 spot: Juvonte Reddic and Treveon Graham are getting about 30 minutes each. Smart would like to keep Reddic at the five, but can rotate in a big to move Reddic to the four and Graham to the three. Justin Tuoyo may be taking over the four/five spot, seeing 10-12 minutes. Jarrod Guest and DJ Haley will split the other 8-10 minutes. Keep in mind Smart is hunting for someone to take that spot, so these three may volley all over this last role.

40 minutes at point guard: Darius Theus with 30 minutes and Teddy Okereafor getting 10 minutes. Game flow dictates how these minutes are distributed (foul trouble, effectiveness, Weber getting minutes at point, etc.)

80 minutes at the 2/3: Troy Daniels and Rob Brandenberg are seeing about 25 minutes, Weber 20 minutes, and Melvin Johnson 10 minutes. Brandenberg and Johnson had a good weekend and their minutes are increasing as a result. Okereafor played 12 minutes versus Memphis but just five against Duke and six against Missouri.

Answer to above question: Smart's substitutions created 96 lineup changes.

The Market For Something to Believe In Is Infinite...

So here we are, at 3-3 after an Atlantis trip that is easily the toughest three days VCU will face all season. You don't play the #17, #5, and #13 teams on successive days without leaving with some sort of parting gift. If anything, this three-in-three gauntlet has the Rams prepared for the rest of the season. They will face no tougher situation all year, and that matters.

That holds true for the RamNation who showed up in numbers and impressed everyone associated with the tournament for their, uh, active noise. Well done, and everyone I spoke with had the same teeth-gritting, brow-furrowing, head-nodding reaction of not being sure how to process what happened.

Losing stinks, but as written after the Duke loss, losing happens at this level.

While there’s a lingering disappointment and frustration in losing two games—at least one of which was very winnable—I come away with a positive vibe from this team. A lot was learned, tested, and exposed over these three games. The coaching staff has a much better feel for strengths, weaknesses, and deficiencies in this squad. When Shaka Smart says, as he did after the Missouri loss, that he has to get better, this kind of pressure-driven understanding of his team is a vital part of that growth.

To wit: Smart is a coach that preaches players earning minutes in practice. However he threw freshman Justin Tuoyo into Saturday’s fray, admitting after the game that Tuoyo hadn’t earned the game minutes but Smart is searching for production from the four spot. That’s growth for both player and coach.

We also saw that the defense is clearly ahead of the offense, and ahead of schedule for itself. Duke was never fazed by havoc but still struggled to score efficiently. The VCU halfcourt defense  smothered the Blue Devils. Mike Kryzyzewski used the word "terrific" seven times in his postgame presser in reference to VCU.

Havoc was on full red alert against Memphis—Tigers point guard Joe Jackson came into the game with two turnovers in 61 game minutes. He had seven turnovers in 20 minutes against VCU before fouling out. The Missouri game fell somewhere in the middle, mainly because Phil Pressey is the best point guard we will see all season.

The takeaway: the VCU defense was largely successful in three separate methods…full havoc, half-havoc, and no havoc. That’s important between the ears—the kids now know havoc is a multi-faceted animal; it’s more than just a press and they can be successful as a defensive team without creating double-digit steals. It gives them the freedom to attack when they smell blood in the halfcourt, or fullcourt.

On offense, the theme of the weekend was getting open shots but not knocking them down. True.

I think this is where we miss Brad Burgess. To me we seemed to lack a shot hunter, a rattlesnake that will take the basketball, tell his teammates to get out of his way, and go score the ball by creating his own shot either behind the arc or with a drive to the hole. We had too many late shot clock situations that ended badly.

(Side note: Treveon Graham is going to be that guy, I have no doubt, but he isn’t there yet. Graham needs to improve his ballhandling, and add some acid to power the freight train.)

One thing, too, that must be framed. Shaka Smart has said on more than one occasion that he credits Anthony Grant, John Brannen, and Tony Pujol for instilling a fiery competitiveness in Joey Rodriguez, Brandon Rozzell, Ed Nixon, and the gang. That group took the floor believing they would win every game they played, but they all had to develop that competitive spirit over time—remember Rozzell dropping that three on Kansas and woofing at the Jayhawks bench? That doesn’t happen before Rozzell’s senior season.

This team is earlier on that learning curve, but I ask you this—could there be a greater lesson learned about competitiveness than playing Duke (they play H-A-R-D) and Missouri/Memphis (elite athletes that challenge everything you do)? Thanks to this weekend, the kids have a greater understanding of what that means in deed, not word, to compete on this new level.

This team faced a Duke squad that has two 6-10 kids who can handle the ball. Missouri threw elite athletes, an all American point guard with ridiculous court vision, and a 6-7 kid who could bomb threes at us. And we were right there with them.

Heck, Memphis threw a similar team at the Rams as Missouri and VCU whipped them. Don't minimalize the importance of front-burnering the success. It helps to give this team a certain resiliency because they know they can win at this level. Everyone from the top down is in the right frame of mind to take those lessons learned and turn the page. Move forward. Progress.

I wonder if any of us should’ve expected anything different. VCU wasn't playing Bethune-Cookman. This is November. Of course there are blown defensive assignments, sloggy offense, searches for answers to deficiencies. That makes this year like every other year in the history of college basketball.

The lesson: adjustments need to be made, but the bar in which we begin to make needed adjustments has never been higher. Take pride that this occurred on the sizable stage and not in a half-empty gym in Harrisonburg. (And nobody got hurt in the process.)

That’s why I think we’ll be fine. VCU is a team that gets better as the year progresses, playing its best basketball in March. That’s the whole point, right? To win in March?

Look at it this way. VCU is 3-3 and you have a salty taste in your mouth. You had to be brain dead or the world’s greatest optimist if you felt good leaving Charleston last year. Seton Hall and Georgia Tech were mundane basketball teams and both took it to us pretty good, and we left there 2-2. But by March VCU hung a 22-0 and 32-4 start on Mason and broke Drexel’s 19-game winning streak. Then, two weeks later the Rams dropped a five seed and nearly beat Indiana to get back to the Sweet 16.

So yeah, a 1-2 weekend cuts, and it hurts. Still.

But it’s like cutting your finger with a knife while chopping vegetables for a gourmet meal. You learn to not do that again, slap a band aid on that sucker, and keep moving forward with the meal. And at some time in the future that meal comes out of the oven complete and warm, and you eat like a king.

***

A few notes:

• I don’t want to lose sight of what Juvonte Reddic accomplished this weekend. He battled two top 15 NBA draft picks to a stalemate. Reddic blunted Memphis’s Tarik Black, rendering Black largely ineffective. Reddic followed that by plopping a 16/13 double-double on probable-lottery pick Mason Plumlee. And Missouri’s Alex Oriakhi left the arena last night with more head nods of disbelief than points and rebounds. There’s a certain fire in Reddic’s underoos when he gets the ball in the block, and he grabbed some man rebounds in traffic this weekend. He didn’t have that last year.
• Treveon Graham, in different games, set career highs in points, rebounds, assists, and steals. Graham had a very good weekend, as did Rob Brandenberg. Melvin Johnson, I think, took a step forward.
• One area that will undoubtedly see attention is point guard. It’s clear Darius Theus is trying to do too much. Theus dribbled too deeply into the paint with no place to go multiple times over the weekend, and fired at least two passes into the backboard support. The good news is that this is a mental adjustment and—cliché alert—let the game come to him. Teddy Okereafor is retreating too much in halfcourt sets. Teddy is doing a good job protecting the basketball but we lack flow when he’s directing halfcourt offense.
• Missouri was the first team this year to outrebound VCU. Wichita State battled to a tie, and the rams outrebounded their other four opponents.

 

Missorui 68, VCU 65. Or, They Have WiFi At The Airport...

The first 25 minutes of this game, to an exponential degree of scary, looked exactly like Friday night's game against Duke. The Rams were swarming on defense and getting good shots on offense, clanking rims left and right. It's only fitting that the halftime score was nearly identical.

The Overview

Missouri was on the verge of being whipped in the middle of the first half. The Tigers were teetering, tired, and testy. But a spate of empty offensive possessions and the outstanding play of Missouri sixth man Keion Bell turned the tide.

VCU played a solid second half, and you knew at about the 10-minute mark this was going down to the wire. Ultimately the Rams were undone by late-game rotation problems in the press that gave Missouri three easy baskets in a frenetic last sequence.

The Skinny

Time to go home, get some rest, and get better. As badly as everyone felt after the Duke loss, this one stung worse. However the locker room wasn't a daethmarch. There was certainly bitter disappointment and frustration, but it wasn't chock full of disillusionment or dismay. The team took this loss like any other three-point loss in a game they thought they should've won. And that's a very, very good sign.

We saw two quiet but major developments: the play of two freshmen, Justin Tuoyo and Melvin Johnson. Tuoyo gave 12 very good minutes at the four spot, a position Shaka Smart admits we're searching for answers.

And Johnson continues to show an aggressive streak uncommon for most freshmen--pump faking threes and heading into the paint on three trips. Johnson still needs work on his defense--he was caught twice looking the wrong way and burned for baskets--but Johnson looks the part.

Where Things Changed

The second-to-last possession decided things. VCU jump-trapped a retreating Phil Pressey and forced a timeout call with 10 seconds on the shot clock. After the stoppage it appeared the Rams again had Pressey hemmed in around the foul line, but he ducked under and hit a tough leaner. When coaches talk about kids making plays, this is a prime example. Nothing went wrong...Pressey just hit a big shot.

However like in the Wichita State game, breakdowns in defensive rotation led to three easy Missouri baskets in the waning minutes. When Smart talks of discipline, THAT is a prime example.

What It Means

Today, nothing. I mean that. It was a close, taut loss, a game that VCU believes--rightfully so--that it should've won. The internalizing that the kids feel good because they competed with the 13th ranked team in the country is hollow, inaccurate, and an excuse. All they know is that we lost. As for the coaches, they have a shining barometer on what needs to be tweaked.

Come March, when we're chewing on at large resumes, we will bring this game back up to discuss its significance--Missouri is a top three SEC team--but as for now it's just another game on the schedule.

Statistic That Jumps Out At Me

Two assists and five turnovers from the point guard spot. I'm okay with the turnovers--at our pace turnovers will happen. However two assists is glaring, especially when you put it against this number: three fast break points. When the offense is clicking, Darius Theus is dropping dimes on the break. Missouri did a very good job stuffing that last night.

The Curmudgeon's View

This weekend exposed exactly where we are missing Brad Burgess. When the offense got stagnant against Duke, it was usually because the first option was defended and led to too much dribbling. Against Missouri, VCU just needed someone to hit a basket. We had no take-charge scorer. It isn't Troy Daniels, who for all his gifts cannot create his own shot. It can't be Juvonte Reddic--he needs to be fed the ball. And it isn't Darius Theus, who doesn't have hte variety of offensive weapons. What this team needs is someone who will take the basketball, tell everyone to get out of his way, and take care of business. Said differently: a bucketmaker.

Stars of the Game

***Treveon Graham. On a night where we desperately needed a stat sheet stuffer, Graham had 12 points, five rebounds, FIVE ASSISTS, and a steal.

**Rob Brandenberg. He capped off a very good weekend with a solid 10 points and hit two big time threes in crucial spots. Brandenberg was also very good in the non-statistical categories.

*Juvonte Reddic. with little else working, Reddic spun and hit three jump hooks on isolation plays. He very much got the best of Alex Oriahki. Reddic also pulled down a handful of man-sized rebounds in his 12/9 night.

***

My apologies for run ons or misspelled words--we board the plane home in 10 minutes. Expect a trip wrap up by tomorrow morning.

Missouri 68, VCU 65. Or, The Sun Also Rises...

It will rise tomorrow, and we head back home. It's late, and I'm exhausted. I have a wake up call in a number of hours I can count on one hand. There's air travel that will allow time for the actual postgame review of Missouri, and then an Atlantis review.

Stay tuned and sleep well. I saw that locker room tonight. We're going to be just fine.

Guess(t)work and Tiger Stripes...

In many respects, the scouting report and keys for this game are very similar to Memphis. These other Tigers, the Saturday version, are big and fast and love to run alongside a kinetic point guard. That's comforting, but perhaps useless. I watched a decent amount of Missouri's game last night and they looked better than Memphis. We will see.

Grandmaster Flash and the Furious Five Things I'm Watching

1. Body Language. This is the third game in three days for both teams. VCU lost a gut-punch, and Missouri was blown out. That's two different mental adjustments and approaches for this third-place game. You're going to see emotion from both teams. The difference will reside in who has earnest emotion and who is faking it. You can see that through body language.

2. Big, Big, Big. DJ Haley has struggled this weekend and Jarrod Guest hasn't quite found his legs. David Hinton played three good minutes yesterday. Haley has played 17 minutes in two games, and Guest 12 minutes. The Rams are going to need a big man to impact the game, give the team 10-12 good minutes. I don't care who it is, just that one of them gets it done.

3. Middle Ground at Point Guard. Darius Theus has played a little over-aggressive (4-20 FGA, five turnovers) and Teddy Okereafor has spent as much time retreating as moving forward in halfcourt offense. There's a nice balance in there, which becomes very important as Missouri wants to push pace. Hurry, but don't rush.

4. Juvonte's JuJu. Reddic has battled two NBA draft picks to a standstill over the past two days. Oriahki and Bowers (see below) are in that mold--big, tough, and physical. I want to see if Reddic stopped by the Internal Exxon station, and if he did not I want to know how much is left in the tank.

5. If I'm Full of Beans. Missouri likes that fast pace that's very pretty--long range threes and lob dunks in transition. Havoc overwhelmed Memphis on Thursday night, and I think the modus operandi remains the same: ugly it up by gang rebounding, trapping, and forcing passes with air under them. Phil Pressey had nine turnovers against Louisville last night. Joe Jackson had seven turnovers on Thursday night. That's good math.

Those Guys

The Missouri attack starts with Phil Pressey (15.8ppg, 5.4apg). In short, Pressey can blow up a game, and is like a can of gasoline on a fire. Pressey loves to get into the lane and make plays, but he also has hit 10-22 threes. If he gets going, you start talking about exponents, not straight multiplication. The challenge for the Rams: contest his every move, and don't let the engine rev.

Alex Oriahki (13.4ppg, 9.4rpg) is the big man. Oriahki goes 6-9, 255-pounds and is a physical post presence who can go to the jump hook with both hands. Oriahki averages five offensive rebounds per game, and can get to the free throw line--39 FTA in five games. The goal of the Rams is a havoc target--run the big man and wear him out to reduce that physicality.

Joining Oriahki is Laurence Bowers (14.2ppg, 5.4rpg) Bowers goes 6-8 and is good in all offensive sets--he can drop face-up jumpers in the mold of Juvonte Reddic but Bowers is also solid around the rim. What's more, Bowers can pick-and-pop and drop a three (5-10 this year). VCUs bigs must box him out.

Earnest Ross (11.0ppg, 6.4rpg) is an energy player who feeds off of Missouri success. He will take bad shots in their offense but he is capable--the Rams cannot let him get going. Keion Bell (8.0ppg, 4.0rpg) is the fifth starter. Bell is the role player who defers to the shooters. Of note: Bell is 18-19 from the FT line.

The first player off the bench is generally Negrus Webster-Chan, a 6-7 combo guard who is a coach's dream: he knows what to do is every situation. Webster-Chan, however, struggles in pressure so you can bet he isn't ready to deal with havoc.

Tony Criswell (4.8ppg, 5.0rpg) is a high-motor, physical 6-9 big off the bench who can shoot to 18 feet--he is a hidden scoring threat. And finally, Stefan Jankovic goes 6-11 but is a skilled, athletic 3-man. The Rams cannot let him stand up and shoot.

The Summation

Let's allow tonight's game to marinate. It's result, and the process by which get to that result, will dictate what matters. Consider all the ramifications of playing well vs. playing poorly; tight win vs. blowout win; tight loss vs. blowout loss. Yeah, marinate.

We're making a lot of assumptions, too. This is unchartered waters for VCU--three top 20 opponents in three straight days. Not three straight games, DAYS. Same deal for the opponent. So honestly, any analysis is base at least somewhat in guesswork.

The gas factor and mental aspects will play as much a role in this game as any we play this season, save a conference championship game. Keep an eye out for the clues--body language, excessive fouling, and response to crisis.

And enjoy the game.

Will Somebody Please Answer The Door?

It's opportunity knocking, exactly the opportunity our realistic brains wanted knocking on this exact day.

Even the most ardent believer couldn't have expected to come to Atlantis and drill three nationally-ranked programs. Oh it would've been awfully nice, and it's fun to dream, isn't it? It made for great burger-flipping conversation at your summertime cookout, but you know better. You know that would not have been realistic thinking.

However, VCU sits in a very realistic position this morning: 1-1 against two highly-ranked teams, with the opportunity to hop a plane for home with wins over Memphis and Missouri in the cargo hold. That's a realistic expectation, 2-1, and one that resonates with the growing VCU program.

VCU doesn't hope for success anymore; it expects success. Don't take that in any egotistical or arrogant manner. It isn't that at all. The program expects that it competes with the best in the country and that's exactly what's occurring this weekend. It's the driver behind the move to the Atlantic 10. The VCU basketball program is exactly like every one of us who played basketball in junior high. In order to get better, you had to play against better, and older, players. For VCU, "older" means programs that have established themselves nationally for far longer.

You aren't living in reality if you don't expect to lose games like last night's ballpeen-hammer-to-the-toes. It's going to happen. It happens because VCU is playing other programs that expect those same things, and they have held that expectation for many years. Those programs lose, too. Heck, five of them lost to VCU in the 2011 NCAA tournament.

That's why I can say VCU expects national success without arrogance. There is a humility tied to it--we will lose hard-fought games to very good basketball programs. The difference is that this is our neighborhood now. VCU is now a "good win" as opposed to the opposition "surviving an upset."

Deal with Duke, and move forward. Lament is useless, and winners don't lament. We have to learn from what we saw last night, and look to Missouri because that's the laser-sharp focus that is needed in the big boy sandbox.

So here we are, with opportunity having pulled back the screen door and is rapping on the door. This is where every single one of us--players, coaches, administrators, fans--want to be. It's time to seize the opportunity, and Missouri stands in the way.

Duke 67, VCU 58. Or, Kalik Is Giving Stella A Run For Her Money...

I'm sitting squarely at the emotional intersection of anger, disappointment, pride, and hopeful joy. What a doggone November rollercoaster wrapped up in 40 minutes.

The Overview

I don't know if they keep records on this kind of thing, but VCU forced Mike Krzyzewski to call a 30-second timeout less than two minutes into the basketball game. That has to be near the top of Coach Ks alltime volcano timeout list for quickest fingers to the shoulders.

The Rams and Devils battled in one of the more interesting first halves--havoc was no factor, and neither was the supposed Duke size advantage. VCU again started the second half slowly--that's a trend worth watching--and fell behind by double digits. They battled back but fell short primarily, in the words of Shaka Smart "because we just didn't make shots."

The Skinny

There is no greater descriptor for the evening than excruciating agony. The game felt like a bad dream where you're raking leaves but they are falling off trees faster than you can rake them up. You full a bag, tie it off, smile, and look up to see a yardfull more. I just knew Briante Weber was going to pick a pocket, head man the ball to Darius Theus, who would hit Troy Daniels for a three in transition that would also signal liftoff. It never came.

It was painful to see those free throws carom away, and to play the role of Hall & Oates--so close, yet so far away. This is bitter. However I am comforted to think that this wasn't a good offensive night, havoc was largely ineffective, we shot free throws poorly, and the fifth-ranked team in the nation will sleep soundly tonight because they were tested, big time. I'm proud of this team, and you should also be proud.

The loss make you want to cuss, but the big picture is brighter. You hate to learn lessons in a loss, but this was a step forward for this team. Still has the acid-in-the-intestines feel, though.

Opportunity exists, again, at 7pm Saturday. VCU faces its third straight ranked team, a program first.

Where Things Changed

In the middle of the ugly six straight misses from the free throw line debacle, the Rams missed two front ends. There's the points, and then there's the opportunity for the back end. More points, and even though havoc wasn't effective you want the opportunity to set up the press.

Two additional empty possessions means the game stalled at 56-50 for what seemed like an eternity. That was the opportunity to gut-punch Duke, and VCU didn't convert.

What It Means

Honestly, who knows? There's the immediate hangover which is going to matter greatly as it relates to tomorrow's mindset. The Rams get #13 Missouri so let's not lose sight of the big picture--VCU can leave the Bahamas 2-1 with two victories over ranked teams. This toughie cannot linger between the ears.

Otherwise there's the sting of a game we felt we had a good chance to win slip away. Outside of that, I'm not sure there's much more than a "good RPI loss" once VCU leaves the islands.

Statistic That Jumps Out At Me

VCU pulled down 17 offensive rebounds. Duke ran 6-10 Ryan Kelly and 6-11 Mason Plumlee at the Rams. VCU never backed down and quite frankly played harder than Duke. That's my glass-half-full stat.

Glass half-empty: Duke 24-27 free throws. Gack.

The Curmudgeon's View

VCU has lost twice this season, and struggled from the free throw line in both games. You can talk all you want about the little things. That's fine and important and all that. But the free throw line is a different little thing in that there's no opposition control. I will tip my cap when someone makes a play to beat us, but the free throw line is a friendly-fire wound. Tonight, I'm quite frankly bewildered. The Rams knocked down their first eight free throws and 10-11. Then, six straight bricks. You figure that out.

Stars of the Game

***Juvonte Reddic. I must caution you to not go overboard when you read the next three sentences. I snuck a peak at the list of NBA scouts in attendance this weekend, and it ran 28 scouts long. The way Reddic got to his 16/13 is a bucket of cold water--spin moves, powerful rebounds, and jump hooks. One word--arsenal. Shaka Smart is still hesitant to give Reddic full-out praise, and I know there's a reason, but Reddic keeps taking steps forward, right in front of us, towards all-conference status.

**Rob Brandenberg. Okay, so he made five fewer threes in five attempts than last night. However Brandenberg continued his assault on playing with confidence and aggression. Skip 2-9 from the field and think about the two possessions late in the second half when Brandenberg played Weber-like on-ball defense. Kid is coming along, and as Shaka Smart said in postgame, the last two nights was the law of averages. I'll take 5-10 from three from Rob; just spread out a little better.

*Treveon Graham. The Freight Train chugged along against players a half-foot taller and held his own. It was a 16/8 night against a very talented team. That's what bucketmakers do on nights like this. Make no mistake, we all gave Graham a mantle he hadn't earned. Tonight, and last night really, were merit badge nights.

A Dookie On My Front Porch...

I'm not going to patronize you with all the "this is what Duke means" banter. You know the opportunity and the reward, briefly stated as a win over the fifth-ranked team in the country and a potential Saturday date with the second-ranked team in the country.

That's what it is...nothing more, nothing less. The side stories are nice, though.

The world became familiar with the name Eric Maynor the last time these two teams matched up, and the VCU Ramnation became familiar with the name Kevin Harlan. Jeff Capel is an assistant at Duke, and we all know what Capel means to this program. But my goodness I want Capel to lose tonight.

Still, let's be sure we live in the moment. Today. Memphis is done and forgotten, and Louisville/Missouri doesn't matter. Right now, today, we get the nation's fifth-ranked basketball team.

Grandmaster Flash and the Furious Five Things I'm Watching

1. Second Wind. In many respects, this is going to be about "what happens next." Nobody expects a 13-22 performance behind the arc. Mason Plumlee is going to be a load. Seth Curry can knock down threes with anyone in the country. So, what happens next after VCU heaves a few bricks, Plumlee scores on three straight trips, or Curry bombs in two threes? There will be adversity this evening--how do we handle that?

2. DJ Haley. The big man is going to be more critical than you think. Duke has a couple players who break down in ballscreen sets and a couple more that have a passing interest in defense. The effectiveness of Haley brickwall screens can free shooters. To a lesser extent, I'm watching Jarrod Guest. This is his role, too, and I think Guest may be leading the country in moving screen fouls committed.

3. Hands tugging on shorts and mouth-breathing. Memphis went eight-deep, and by the middle of the second half the Tigers could barely stand up. It was visible fatigue. At one point Chris Crawford cramped up. I have no idea how conditioned this Duke team is, but they also basically go eight-deep. The other side--Krzyzewski may be compelled to go deeper into his bench. I have no idea what that would bring.

4. The crowd. You should be proud of the RamNation that traveled to Atlantis. They are bringing noise and enthusiasm. Louisville played after VCU last night, and the Cardinals fans were very impressive. I wonder if that contingent will arrive early and join the VCU fans in rooting against Duke. You know how these Rams love to play in the rabid environment. With apologies to Shaka Smart, I may come out of my seat if Troy Daniels hits a spine-jellying three late in the second half and salutes a Louisville crowd going nuts.

5. Pure, Unwavering Execution. The Rams put on a clinic last night. You know all those things Smart harps on, those little things? They will be very important tonight against a physical Duke team. We need proper spacing, hard cuts, and crisp passes to free shooters. Traps must overwhelm Duke players and force passes with air underneath them so the free safety can pick the pass. I think that frequently gets lost in all of this excitement: this team is executing at a high level.

Those Guys

The scouting report starts with Mason Plumlee (21.7ppg, 8.7rpg), a 6-10 warrior who has made 24-31 field goals (77.4%) on the season and had a double-double by halftime yesterday. Plumlee can do everything around the rim and prefers to duck in underneath the defense from the baseline below the blocks.

The goal for the Rams--push Plumlee out to unusual spots on the floor. Generally I like to say uncomfortable here, but Plumlee is comfortable everywhere. So the goal is to push Plumlee to play from unfamilar spots to reduce his immediate effectiveness. The VCU halfcourt defense needs to be on high alert to keep him out of the offense.

Seth Curry (16.0ppg) is the other name you know, and I'm not buying the whole "leg cramps reduces his effectiveness" meme. Curry is a bomber who reads screens very well for catch-and-shoot threes, so the impetus is a simple plan: eat up any free space for Curry and not give him any freedom to move.

Of note: Curry isn't very interested in defense, so wing threes may be open for VCU.

Rasheed Sulaimon (11.7ppg, 4.3rpg) is a big 6-4 guard who will play the 2/3 spots and see spot time at the point. Sulaimon has hit 8-18 from three this year but isn't an overly-physical guard. He does not block out well so that becomes key in offensive rebounding situations for the Rams.

The point guard is 6-1 sophomore Quinn Cook (7.7ppg, 4.7apg). Cook can play fast and his biggest weapon is getting into the lane for easy floaters, or dump-downs to Plumlee (who ducks under a defense from the weak side baseline...see how that works?). Cook is a bit of a gambler on defense, so look for Darius Theus getting into the lane as well.

The fifth starter is 6-11 Ryan Kelly (10.7ppg, 5.0rpg), a pick-and-pop four man who prefers roam the perimeter like a Euro player, spotting up for threes. Kelly can zip into the key area for jumpers, much like we see Juvonte Reddic and Jarrod Guest. Simply put, Kelly just needs to be punished.

Krzyzewski, like Pastner, will only go about eight-deep. Tyler Thornton is the first player off the bench. Thornton started the first two games of the season and is Duke's best on-ball defender. He has taken 13 shots this season, and 12 have been threes. Josh Hairston is a big, strong 6-7 swingman and an energy guy, and Amile Jefferson is a freshman big (6-8). Both Hairston and Jefferson are very talented offensive players but can be taken advantage of when VCU has the ball.

The Summation

We spoke on air during the Memphis game that VCU didn't need to earn the respect of the Tigers player, they needed to take respect. Job well done, as the Rams punched Memphis right in the teeth early, and kept punching to the final buzzer.

You can bet Duke is not going to take VCU lightly. Krzyzewski has won about 400 million games and you know he gets that a lack of respect quickly becomes a 14-point halftime deficit.

Havoc aside, it's obvious the Rams are going to have to crowd the three-point line and run Duke's shooters off the line and into the paint. What's more, those technically-sound box outs are very important. The Blue Devils have size and can reach over the top of VCU without over-the-back fouling.

On offense, it's going to be about setting punishing ballscreens and reading opportunities. That's the summary of the "execution we spoke of earlier.

Duke prefers to play a pretty game, so we will have to junkyard this one up, making things look all Fred Sanford-like. And that's a secret viewpoint of havoc. It's fast, but it isn't a pretty-looking, racehorse fast. Havoc is more tornadic, leaving devastazione in its wake.